Why Putin will never surrender

Vladimir Putin during a speech at the ceremony of signing agreements on the annexation of four regions of eastern Ukraine (Photo: Council of the Federation of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, CC BY 4.0 International, via Wikimedia Commons)

24 February 2022. You’d be forgiven for forgetting what you were doing on this day eight months ago. You may even think that it was a day like any other, in which time passed but nothing of real consequence happened. Yet this was a monumental moment in modern European history. It was the day when Vladimir Putin showed his true colours to the world by ordering an invasion of Ukraine.

It was the day when the eyes of almost every European were on Putin, with the invasion forcing even those who paid little to no attention to the ruthless Russian dictator before to ask themselves the following questions: What does Putin want to achieve? What lengths will he go to get what he wants? And is my country safe anymore?

In the weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many intelligence officials were ringing the alarm bells about the probability of a Russian offensive. News headlines warned us of credible US intelligence about an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. Yet there was also a lingering sense of denial across Europe at the time, as many clung to the belief that Putin was bluffing and that he would ultimately pull back his troops after attracting the attention of his European neighbours and gaining some concessions from them.

With this denial, it seemed as if Europe had learnt nothing about the Russian dictator in the wake of the 2014 Russian invasion of Crimea, a now Russian-occupied region of Ukraine, itself a callous land-grab presided over by none other than, you guessed it, Vladimir Putin. It appears many Western leaders thought they could bargain and negotiate with Putin, when in fact, he was finalising his plan to wipe Ukraine off the map.

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, a proud sovereign country, was certainly a bold move, one so audacious that it was seen as unthinkable by many in the weeks and months preceding it. And yet he went ahead with it, willing to take a massive gamble on a conflict which could end up decimating the Russian army, economy, and even his own grip on power across Russia.

By invading Ukraine, Putin not only sent a powerful message about how he’s no longer willing to play happy families with the West, but he also put all his chips on the table. And by doing so, he would’ve had to accept the possibility of losing everything in the process. After all, gambles don’t always pay off.

Unfortunately for Putin, wars cannot be rigged in the same way as Russian elections to get the desired outcome. Battles require strategy, and this was clearly in short supply in Russian army units during the first few weeks of the conflict, as many who watched the news videos showing the miles of abandoned Russian army vehicles on the roads leading to Kyiv will remember.

Russia’s lacklustre gains in the war thus far, as the planned capture of Kyiv has gone from being a genuine concern amongst the Ukrainians to now seeming far less likely, reflect how Putin remains stuck in this war of attrition for the long haul. He could always order a surrender and instead call it a tactical retreat, you may say. But this ignores the fact that giving up is not an option for Putin if he wants to remain in power.

Putin cannot survive as Russian dictator if Russia loses the war in Ukraine. It’s as simple as that. Firstly, it’s incredibly difficult, if not impossible, to see how Putin could go back to being on cordial terms with many of Europe’s political leaders.

By ordering an invasion without just cause, he has left himself in short supply of nearby friends and allies, as many European governments have gone from being indifferent towards him to actively seeking his demise. Lacking the support of Europe behind him, he has cornered himself, and the only option other than total defeat and humiliation is for him to fight his way out of the corner by winning the war.

The phrase ‘house of cards’ provides additional insight as to why Putin cannot afford to lose the war. His reasoning for invading Ukraine, which was based around unfounded claims that the Ukrainian Government were Nazis committing acts of genocide against Russian speakers, is well-known to many people across the world due to the amount of publicity his inflammatory speeches have received on news networks. To any rational-minded person who has not been systematically conditioned by Russian propaganda, almost everything that now comes out of his mouth is a pack of lies.

Nevertheless, these lies have immense power over Russian minds when they are used by state broadcasters to construct an elaborate false narrative about Ukraine to justify the war. If Putin were to pull his troops out of Ukraine, it would be difficult for Russian state broadcasters to put a positive spin on this, as the official narrative of the war so far has been that it is a crusade against the evils of the Ukrainian government.

Thus, a Russian withdrawal or surrender would likely leave many Russians questioning why their President could afford to give up on the conflict considering how big of a threat Ukraine is meant to pose to their country. Questions such as these would likely lead to an even greater number of uncomfortable questions about the authenticity of Putin’s strongman reputation and about his suitability as President, given he failed to defend Russia.

All of this is a hypothetical situation which may never even come to pass. Yet it’s important to consider how Putin’s dictatorship could be fatally undermined if Russia were to give up on the war in Ukraine. After all, Putin’s grip on power rests upon the fact that others close to him are too afraid to challenge him.

If he were to show weakness by failing to secure a victory in Ukraine, this would likely make it easier for some of his inner circle to coalesce around an alternative leader, as Putin would no longer be seen as unbeatable. 

It’s also important to note that there have been anti-war protests across Russia in which members of the public from all walks of life have bravely voiced their opposition to Putin’s reckless warmongering. Although these demonstrations have been routinely suppressed, they nonetheless illustrate how the Russian people are far from being united behind Putin like he’d want you to believe.

A theoretical withdrawal of troops by Russia in Ukraine would likely give these dissenting voices hope that change is possible in Russia, as Russian defeat would perhaps lead to disillusionment and anger amongst those who had been led to support the war, encouraging them to question whether Putin is really the right person to lead Russia.

You may think that the war in Ukraine will end in Russian victory. Or perhaps you’re convinced that the charismatic President Zelensky can lead his army to repel the Russian threat. But hopefully you now see that regardless of the potential outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, surrender is not an option for Vladimir Putin. For him, giving up would be like turkeys voting for Christmas, and this is what makes Putin a dangerous and formidable foe.