What could Germany’s federal elections mean for France?
Illustration: Anna Webb
On the 26th of September 2021, Germany faced what was arguably one of its most significant elections in decades. After twelve years in power, Angela Merkel’s chancellorship officially came to an end, leaving her liberal-conservative CDU to determine its own future under new leadership.
The SPD, the centre-left German Social Democratic Party, ultimately emerged victorious. As the gruelling coalition talks between the SPD, the Greens, and the pro-business FDP have just come to an end, the future of European politics has been thrown into uncertainty. Could the end of another ‘grand coalition’ (an SPD-CDU alliance) mark a return to centre-left politics, dictated more by ideology than centrist pragmatism? Are the CDU to blame for their own failure, or was it simply time for change? But it is not only Germany that needs to ask itself these kinds of tough questions. Europe’s attention can now be directed at France, which is soon to face the presidential Election of 2022.
The French National Assembly
Emmanuel Macron’s sudden rise to power in 2017 came as a shock to many. As the youngest president in French history, Macron has presided over some of France’s most troubled years in decades: the gilets-jaunes, the 2019-20 pension strike, and a global pandemic that has claimed the lives of 120,000 of its citizens. Macron is still leading in the polls, but after the German elections, it would be naïve to assume that France’s political future is in any way clear-cut. The SPD only made significant gains in the final month before the election. The six months remaining until the French elections therefore offer plenty of room for the French political landscape to transform dramatically. But in the meantime, we can still ask ourselves whether the German elections might shine any light on the potential results in France next May.
Merkel’s departure from the chancellorship was an inevitability that Europe has been bracing itself for several years. Fondly known to many as Mutti (mother), she has been viewed as a stabilising force at the heart of Europe, providing Germany with a simultaneous stability and flexibility. While Merkel’s conservatism is undeniable, the CDU has come to take up much of the centrist space once held by the SPD under her leadership. It therefore comes as no surprise that her party was divided over the question of her successor. The final choice of Armin Laschet saw mixed responses; for some, it signalled a controversial return to the conservatism of the CDU, while his unpopular handling of the covid crisis in his own state, North-Rhine Westphalia, added fuel to the fire.
Macron has presided over some of France’s most troubled years in decades
So, how does this compare to France? The polls are still suggesting a clear victory for Macron, despite his alarming tendency to pander to the right of the National Assembly. Yet, what the German elections have really demonstrated is the unpredictability of public opinion. While the SPD’s 26% share of the vote does make them the largest party, they remain reliant upon the ‘alternative’ FDP (a libertarian, business-orientated party) and the Greens in order to secure the chancellorship. In the same way that Germany appears to have abandoned its traditional centre-left/centre-right duopoly, France also saw the rise of two ‘alternative’ parties in the final round of the 2017 French elections: Macron’s own En Marche! and Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National. France appears to have parted ways with the long-established pre-eminence of the Parti Socialiste and Les Républicains. But while Germany is seeing the rise of centrist, environmentally-centred politics, France is instead seeing widespread support for increasingly nationalist, right-wing candidates.
Even the relative success of Macron and Le Pen does not seem to have satisfied this desire for a radical political alternative in France. The unanticipated rise of Éric Zemmour, a xenophobic polemicist, self-proclaimed Bonapartist, and advocate of the alarmist, and deeply racist, ‘great replacement’ theory, demonstrates that this shift to the right in French politics is only growing in potency. Despite at the time of writing not having confirmed his candidacy in the upcoming elections, Zemmour is at around 15% in the opinion polls - only two points behind Le Pen.
Zemmour’s success in the public arena is also emblematic of an increasing preference for personality over policy. Despite no affiliation with any existing parties, and not even having officially announced his candidacy, he has sparked fierce debate among the French population and political commentators alike. His affinity for controversy has allowed his name to become a symbol of radical alternative politics for some, and for many others a symbol of a disturbing movement towards a form of neo-fascism in France. This trend is not exclusive to France; one could see the success of Scholz in Germany as less of a reflection on the SPD, and more as a sign of his personal favour as a Merkel ‘continuity candidate’.
A stabilising force at the heart of Europe?
But what might the German election results tell us about France’s near political future? Germany’s case is rather peculiar; despite the SPD holding the chancellorship for the first time in over 15 years, Scholz is still regarded as a figure of continuity. It appears that in the aftermath of the pandemic, and some of the worst floods in recent years, Germany desired both change and continuity. While the prospect of another Macron administration is certainly not desirable, we must hope that France will choose to favour ‘centrist’ continuity over Zemmour or Le Pen when it comes to election day.
The relative success of the Greens and FDP is also reflective of a Europe-wide rise of alternative parties, much like the quick rise of Macron’s En Marche!. While Scholz may have been a popular Merkel continuity candidate, his votership was primarily older, as younger generations chose to vote for non-traditional parties. In France, En Marche! is still topping the opinion polls for young people, but the worrying rise of Zemmour exposes a fundamental unhappiness and unrest among a large population of French voters.
Perhaps France is now seeing a similar preference for personality over policy. Zemmour has already garnered considerable favour from the public. Although six months remain until the Presidential elections, the rise of Zemmour in the aftermath of the German elections may serve as a call to French politicians to reassess the role of personality-driven politics, as well as to recognise the delicate balance of change and continuity needed after a world-wide pandemic.
