The election of a generation: Erdoğan v. Kılıçdaroğlu

Mansur Yavaş, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, Ekrem İmamoğlu and Selvi Kılıçdaroğlu on 6 March 2023 (Photo: Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi, CC BY 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons)

In the early hours of 6 February, a devastating 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck the southern and central regions of Turkey. Immediately, and for weeks after, survivors asked the same questions: ‘Where is the state? Where is our government?’

At the time, and still with three months to go until the general elections, politicians from every party strongly stated that now was not the time for politics, that the country had to unite in the face of such destruction. However, the situation quickly become political; how could it not? It was not members of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s government whom we saw on the ground immediately after reports of the devastation began flooding in, but rather members of the opposition who were there in affected districts, helping, listening, and bearing witness to the millions who had lost homes and families.

In fact, in his first television broadcast a mere 24 hours after the earthquake, the visual style of which led to comparisons being drawn between Erdoğan and the High Chancellor of the 2005 dystopian film V for Vendetta, the president felt it important to call out those spreading “fake news” about the government’s inaction and stated that he was keeping a record of those creating ‘social chaos’ in order to deal with them after the crisis; just the kind of unifying rhetoric that was needed after the earthquake!

However, reports from affected regions were not fake news. It took several days for authorities to seriously confront the crisis they were facing. It was revealed that contractors used cost-cutting measures in the construction of buildings and the government simply let them do it, as if no-one had learnt from the lessons of the 1999 Izmit earthquake, in which 18, 373 people died.

According to DHA, nearly two months after the disaster more than two million earthquake victims were still living in tents. Distress towards the handling of the earthquake has developed into a rage that is the culmination of 20 years of poverty, discontent, and the erosion of basic human rights under AKP rule.

Now, for millions of people, there is hope. The Millet İttifakı (Nation Alliance) was established prior to the 2018 election and comprises of opposition parties from across the political spectrum, united by one goal: get Erdoğan out of office. The alliance has thrown its weight behind one presidential candidate, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, and, with Islamist and AKP-splinter parties in their midst, citizens who have voted for Erdoğan for the past 20 years are considering switching their vote.

Other opposition parties, including the Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), have decided not to field candidates and are encouraging their supporters to vote for Kılıçdaroğlu. This is incredible, and it might well be the most united opposition Turkey has seen in decades, committed to ousting the increasingly-autocratic incumbent and transforming the political system from a presidential one back into a parliamentary one.

However, despite the great enthusiasm shown for and by the opposition, many polls have come out with mixed results; this will be a very close election. It is worth keeping in mind that many of these polls were conducted before Muharrem İnce dramatically pulled out of the race on 11 May, just days before the election.

There was never any worry about the ex-Republican People’s Party (CHP) presidential candidate of actually obtaining the presidency (he only ever polled in the single digits) but many supporters of Kılıçdaroğlu’s candidacy accused İnce of playing into Erdoğan’s hands and splitting the opposition vote which would prevent Kılıçdaroğlu from getting the necessary 50%+1 votes to become president in the first round. Now that he has pulled out, and considering the fact that the majority of his supporters say they would vote for Kılıçdaroğlu in the event of a run-off, it is likely that Kılıçdaroğlu will win this election in the first round.

Yet, whether Erdoğan will easily give up his power in the event that he loses is another question. If Kılıçdaroğlu wins by a small margin, which currently seems to be the case, there is nothing stopping Erdoğan from disputing the election. There is already precedent for this: the courts were forced to order a re-count for the 2019 Istanbul mayoral elections after the CHP candidate, Ekrem İmamoğlu, emerged victorious, ending the AKP’s 15-year reign in Istanbul.

Erdoğan is already preparing for a loss and he is making it clear that he will not bow out with grace: “My people will not hand over this country to a president supported by [the PKK (the Kurdistan Workers’ Party)],” he bellowed on 1 May ; the Minister of the Interior is already calling the election a ‘political coup attempt’, without even waiting for the results.

His supporters are being whipped up into a state of frenzy, ready to defend this autocrat by any means, come results day. This kind of rhetoric is already having worrying effects. There were chaotic scenes at a pro-Kılıçdaroğlu rally in Erzurum during which supporters of Erdogan’s Cumhur İttifakı (People’s Alliance) infiltrated the meeting and threw stones at Istanbul mayor İmamoğlu, injuring many in the crowd.

If this is how they react in the lead up to the election, what will happen if Erdoğan loses? Even if he concedes defeat, will his supporters accept the results? It is not hard to imagine a 6 January -style riot taking place on 15 May; after all, these are the people who have voted for Erdoğan and the AKP in election after election as he dragged the country into economic ruin.

For the first time, there is a real possibility of Erdoğan being ousted; this is a critical moment for Turkey. Many young people like me, who are voting for the first time, have never known a Turkey without Erdoğan and the AKP. We do not know what life under new parties or under a new president will be like, but what we do know is that life under the current autocratic regime has become unbearable and we have had enough.

For a while it seemed like we had hit rock bottom but, allied with terrorist-affiliated parties like HÜDA PAR (The Free Cause Party) and itching to revoke Law No. 6284 which protects women against domestic violence, it is clear that, if Erdoğan wins, life in Turkey will get worse. The hope sparked by the Millet İttifakı must carry over to the polls. If this happens, come 15 May, we will wake up to a new Turkey under President Kılıçdaroğlu.