Riots and rainforests
Lula in 2009 (Photo: World Economic Forum, CC BY-NC-SA 2.0, via Flickr)
This is not President Lula’s first rodeo. Having previously served two terms as president from 2003 to 2010, you might say that the post of Brazilian president is, in a sense, somewhat of an old stomping ground. But there’s no denying that 2023 Brazil is a completely new landscape compared to the Brazil, and the world, of the early 2000s.
Not only is the political and social scene entirely different, but this time Lula essentially scraped his way back into office, much to the anger of the very vocal Bolsonaro die-hards who have continued to make his life that much more difficult. Winning by a fraction in what remains a heavily fractured and polarised society is by no means an ideal start when it comes to addressing the serious issues currently on the table.
But Lula’s aims and policies are clear, and markedly different from his far-right predecessor. The problems are similar, but what new vision has Lula got in store for Brazil during these next four years?
In terms of the economy, it’s clear that Lula wants results, and wants them now. He has repeatedly criticised Brazil’s central bank for what he feels are unacceptable inflation rates, as well as the economy’s stagnation in the last quarter of 2022. His interventionist approach to the central economic institutions of the country perhaps doesn’t project the best image when it comes to attracting foreign investors, who have expressed concern at the open criticism of his own system.
Another target of Lula’s drastic reforms has been Brazil’s approach to foreign policy. At the COP27, he declared that Brazil was ‘back to reconnect with the world’, and he has certainly made good on the promise of resetting and reforming certain relationships.
Following Bolsonaro’s legacy of a slightly frigid and hostile relationship with the US and the Biden administration, Lula has contrastingly seized the chance to reignite the spark with Biden, someone with whom he has historically had great political affinity. To that end, the two met in February to discuss common approaches to the environment crisis and the rise of far-right extremism.
However, how long this ‘buddy-buddy’ approach will last remains to be seen, given that Lula is also fixed on upholding a policy of neutrality and non-intervention regarding the war in Ukraine. The US has also notably been pushing Brazil to build closer ties with NATO, something that does not fit into Lula’s agenda whatsoever.
No doubt, Lula is being extremely careful when it comes to maintaining Brazil’s neutrality. At times, he seems to be in cahoots with the US and the Western bloc, yet at the same time, it’s obvious that he is unwilling to do anything that might antagonise Beijing and its allies.
Even without the chaos of international relations, Lula is also up against his own Caesar-esque situation back at home. Bolsonarismo remains a potent political force, manifesting itself in several different ways, most notably through the riots of 8 January this year.
As if they had not done enough immediately after the election results by staging protests outside army barracks demanding military intervention, this time the Bolsonaro crew certainly made themselves heard. Even though Lula had already been confirmed as head of state a week prior, thousands of Bolsonaro supporters still felt it necessary to storm the Nation’s Congress, Supreme Court and presidential palace, slashing paintings, smashing windows and destroying furniture. Deja vu, anyone?
This incident was labelled by many as a ‘cut and paste of the Trump playbook’ and just goes how to show how divided the Brazilian political scene really is.
It’s hard for Lula to decide who to trust. Following the riots, he accused the military of neglecting their duties and of even colluding with the rioters and has since dismissed the chief of the army. Some might label this a pattern of paranoia, and it’s difficult to see how Lula can proceed productively when he seemingly can’t even trust his inner circle.
It’s not all Shakespearean doom and drama, however. Something extremely positive to see has been Lula’s firm commitment to a new environmental policy, an issue that Bolsonaro had a poor track record with. With illegal logging and mining in the Amazon persisting, Lula has introduced policies to curb gold mining, pledged to halt destruction of the rainforest itself and restore Brazil as an international leader on climate issues.
Given that the Bolsonaro administration actively empowered the sectors that are most damaging for indigenous people and forest protection, it’s refreshing and uplifting to be reassured of Lula’s commitment to environmental change.
Brazil is a key player on the global environmental stage, and if Lula can commit change on this topic, maybe Brazil’s future is a bright one. There’s no doubt that unifying this polarised society won’t be easy, but only time will tell whether Lula is Brazil’s knight in returning armour. Third term lucky!